A FEW THINGS TO WATCH AND THINK ABOUT

Today we saw weakness in the market. There were a number of reasons for this. First one that I saw was the Nasdaq which closed down 2.31% at 1746.17. This was helped by MSFT which was down 2.9% Dell off 3.1% Goog off 3.2% at $396.63 yep under the $400 . There were many Tech stocks down emc, cien, intc, in fact hard to find a winner there. This was mostly down to worries about spending may fall by as much as 6/7% this year in what are essentially growth companies . Yes spending down in one of the big O's targeted areas to help the economy . Of course there is the talk of how much these stocks had run and were due a bit of a pullback . By now you will be aware about my thinking of the run, it was at least in part manufactured . There really is no interest in the market at the moment from investors. This can be clearly seen by the Vol. of late. No one is willing to take any kind of long term view at these levels and most think we will see lower levels again sooner or later.

Another reason for the fall today was the uncertainty about earnings from the big industrials with Alcoa AA giving their numbers after the bell tomorrow Wed. The number is expected to come in low. Their ceo announced today that the future is looking better with China looking like it's leading the way out of this slump. I worry when you hear things are not so bad before you get earnings from a company. A kind of soften the blow so to say.

There was a bit of a worry for some traders of UNG which was trading up till it was halted during the day. It finally got trading again but closed down around 3% at $12.18 It's not one I follow, but the news was about them looking for regulatory approval to issue 1 bln new units. What I hear you say more shares they must have more shareholders than shares lol. Well joking aside here is a couple of links to the story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0733779520090707

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAcyPvtgZKpU

Oil had a nasty slip today too with Crude oil falling to a six-week low. No one is buying at the moment as demand has fallen with inventories showing a rise last week. Here is a link for the weekly numbers . http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html

Again I see reports of people saying it's needs to pullback a bit. “The price fall looks like a needed correction to the market,” Simon Wardell, energy research manager at Global Insight Inc. in London, said today on Bloomberg radio. “The oil market doesn’t reflect spot conditions, it reflects the expectation of conditions, and those change very quickly.”

The $ is in the news quite a bit and is been traded at 1.39 with the € as I type.

Credit card loan delinquencies also increased, rising to 4.75% from 4.52% in the last quarter of 2008.

The US unemployment rate is now at a 25-year high of 9.4%.

Debt Burden Quickens Power Shift as G-8 Loses Clout

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aEVdnjdCm1W0

Yep overall I'm quite confident in this market. Of course you have to be on the right side of the fence .

GEOPOLITICAL QUANDRY Will something fall out of this

Well we have two fronts in the Nuclear power saga up and running at the moment . The First and potentially most dangerous is in my view the treat of Israel on Iran . First off the US will do little to stop such an attack. Second I see in a report that the Saudis are not stopping Israeli planes from flying through their air space if such an attack were to be launched . Also Israel has in the past proven that they are well capable of such an attack as they bombed an alleged Syrian nuclear facility in 2007.




The election fallout at the moment must be getting a lot of attention from Mossad. We see daily internet clips from mobile phones of the split in the people. Which reminds me of the old saying divide and conquer. Israel must be weighting things up big time these days. I personally think Israel will make a move on Iran, the clock must be ticking on this one. Israel has the capacity to take out any Nuclear infrastructure they want with conventional weapons and know they have the BIG arsenal to prevent any retaliation.

The Second Nuclear story is more a song and dance affair . It's another divided country judging from the stories that are leaking out of North Korea. But this is more a show of we like to be known too. Iran has been getting a lot of the headlines and Kim wants to be up there in the news. He must like the US more than people give credit as he fires off the biggest and best rockets he can to celebrate the 4th of July. He lit up the skies on the 4th in 2006 too and kicked off the celebrations in the US with a long-range Taepodong-2 and six smaller missiles. I don't think this threat is as big as is been made out in the popular press.




While the Chinese dont appear to be to upset with his developments they may not be showing the support he would like to be receiving . At the moment there is a did he or didn't he visit China with regard to his son and soon to be new leader of Korea. The Financial Times keep saying he did and if history proves to be right he did in fact visit. We have seen these denials in the past only to be proven right.



But how did he get along with their old allies is the question? China's attitude towards North Korea has hardened, shown by its recent support for sanctions against them. Also since that visit the ruling Korean Workers' Party has ordered the removal of Chinese-made cookies, candies and pharmaceuticals all in the guise of preaching self-sufficiency.



The only danger here is the sanity of the man himself . I don't think he is mad in the sense that he's going to do something crazy but, he has been reported to be in not the best of health . He sent his son and heir to his biggest ally to have at best a middle of the road meeting and more likely rejection . China needs things to go very smoothly with the rest of the world as they try to kick start their economy. Kim could feel so isolated here that he could think well I'll go out with a bang. The world will remember me one way or the other. I don't think it will happen but it's the mad things that happen. I lived to witness 911, I missed two world wars thank God but WHO WOULD HAVE EVER THOUGHT is what comes to mind.

The worrying thing was the response of the Israeli Trade and Industry Minister Benjamin Ben-Elizer whom blasted the US on their response to the Korean Missile Launches.

"I am very concerned about the United States' reaction to North Korea's gross provocation," Ben-Eliezer said in a speech delivered outside Tel Aviv.

Now why would he be blasting the US !!!!! Has Israel got some plan or are they all mouth like the rest of them. Well you do have to be seen and heard whether your a little man or just think your big enough to win.

Two stories tied together at the hip.



The outcome of Israel / Iran a short but brutal war. World economies in tatters




The North Korean story is about a little man who want's to be seen . Nothing going to happen. Unless!!!!!!




So if any, which comes first Iran or North Korea




It's the flip of a coin in my book.







Heads Iran / Tails Iran and if it lands on it's side Korea.





Not the most reliable source wikipedia but some info is ok , You should verify anything from this site.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-il
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad



Other links

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6638568.ece
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25735849-601,00.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hzRpTuwqgSm3eOrlneK3R5WKY8pA