OOPS SOMETHING IS BROKEN

.9% DAY

That was the day that was in it. The Dow , Cac, Dax and FTSE all closed up the same .9%.

Well that wasn't exactly the full story as the S&P closed up 1.01% and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. This rise was after the main index's fell for two days by around 3%. I was hoping for a follow through on yesterdays falls but alas it didn't happen. I wouldn't be to worried though as I felt the markets lacked any drive and feel safe with my small short position. I think that the retail business is still weak and shows the vulnerability of this so called recovery.

Stocks rallied today based on consumer hopes ha ha I say, Home Depot reported earnings .66 cents compared to .77 last year along with Target's 79 cents per share versus 82 cents. Target came in higher than expected due to cost cutting and also said they thought that the recovery was stalling. Revenue and same-store sales slipped, as consumers remained cautious. Shares gained 6%. WMT closed down at 51.32 close to the low end of their trading range which was 51.24 - 51.85 having opened at 51.64. I wouldn't be buying retail yet as I think it has a bit to prove just yet. There are around 300k people in the US that have availed of the clunckers for cash who didn't have a car payment and now do. This is money out of the system on big one off buys that have years of repayments ahead of them. Many of the retail stocks have had a very big run and in my humble opinion along with the banks will see a pullback .

I expect HPQ will drag down the Nasdaq tomorrow, the company said it expected revenue to decline between 4 percent and 5 percent. The weak demand for personal computers and printer ink has seen Hewlett-Packard (HP) report a 19% fall in quarterly profit. Sales growth of its software business fell even further from the previous quarter. Revenue and profit margins of its personal computer business may be getting hurt by the popularity of the low-cost netbooks
The world's top PC marker said that net profit totalled $1.64bn in the three months ended 31 July, down from $2.03bn in the same quarter a year ago. HP closed at $43.96 on the New York Stock Exchange, and fell to $43.09 in extended trading. It's still trading as I type and had touched a low of 42.95. Overall the story is not what I would expect of a recovery.

Shares of Analog Devices Inc crashed 5.6 percent to $25.83 after the closing bell on Tuesday after the semiconductor equipment maker released third-quarter results.

It's a funny old world really , it's the computer industry that took the jobs from so many people and although it created many jobs it never will replace enough to make the world go round . A job killer industry that we cant live without. You can eat chips but not the micro ones. You cant have consumers without jobs and without jobs you can't have recovery. A millionaire last year was a two bit player . Today he's a millionaire ......

DID YOU KNOW......

A barrel of oil is currently $68 a barrel . If you got the retail market price for the same barrel filled with HP best quality ink you would pay around $300,000

BLACK MONDAY ANYONE ?????

Monday, August 17, 2009
Black Monday??????

THE ROAR OF THE BEAR
Futures down heavy as investors pull in their horns amid growing worry about strength of global recovery. Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dived nearly 5%. Major markets in Europe were all down about 2% in morning trading. And this on the news that Japan is the latest country to emerge from its worst recession since the end of the second world war, recording its first quarter of growth for more than a year amid a rise in exports. Japan saw it's GDP rise at an annualised rate of 3.7% in the April-June period, and by 0.9% from the previous three months. Exports rose 6.3% from the previous quarter. But Analysts have warned that this recovery could evaporate as it was a home based stimulus package handout that helped things. Some of the benefits came through cash handouts to all residents - those, together with subsidies for the fuel-efficient cars and green electrical appliances . Unemployment is at a six-year high of 5.4% and could rise to a record 5.8% next year. There is a strong fear that if spending slows or stops things could turn for the worst fast. I feel that the spending could easly stop as people may have bought all the discounted goods they need for some time. We saw a rise in oil and steel prices due to restocking of inventory but will we see the market buy up the new stock as quick as last time. I think not.

The Chinese market is off 17% from it's high on the 4th Aug

Jobs still in my view is key to the recovery. While I have been away for a month on holidays I did hear that the job losses had improved in the US but still down. The US needs to be creating 250k jobs to keep even. Where are those jobs going to come from in the near future . I just cant see it happening for some time.





The stimulus packages have had some success but I fear another round will do more harm than good. It is better for the world to find a level to work off than a pumped up false floor.






I'm still a bear , down on tza about $20k but have made progress trading over the last couple of days. I am still 95% cash and won't be entering any long positions bar a shot or two at the odd bounce for a 2 min trade.

I think the long term price of oil could be higher but think it will come under big pressure short term and could see $45 in Oct a month I hate. The stock markets will dictate the oil price also the $ which will rise before it eventually gets hammered.

Gold is a buy at $850. Silver is in my view better value than gold and may be the better long term hold.

Will the s&p see the March lows ............ I think yes easy.

Read my dislaimer below.